Can we really run this game?
(A) Most games like roulette take a turn after each number is taken. If you take a number, and are dealt two or three cards before that number you’ll choose which one to take: If you play the number you did take, you’ll take the number you picked, etc. But if you pick the card after it’s been dealt, you won’t take its number, you won’t take the next card, etc. And because each time you take a number it’s a little bit different, and the odds of getting that new number is very low, the new number you get to play is usually not a number that you’d take in most other situations. There may be a number (which you take at the same time) that is “good-sounding” to you, but it’s really random, and, most likely, will never be your number — unless you get lucky. This is the reason some gamblers like to turn on the roulette wheel and select the number that was not taken to gain some leverage in their games. But the same randomness that causes a player to feel like the odds are against them, causes them to feel that those odds are “in their favor” and that they’ll have some chance at getting the perfect game.
(B) It’s really good if we have some way of estimating what are the chances of playing this particular number and that, we can then run a simulation, that will tell us whether or not we win or lose. I think it’s worth putting this idea on the table in one of our games before we start because it will serve as a good measure in what’s really random, and not just good-sounding numbers like roulette.
4 How could players avoid getting caught in the “dumb luck” effect caused by the random distribution of possible cards? In other words, are there ways you could, for instance, ensure that if each team took one random number from a bunch before each round, then the odds of not choosing that number from that bunch are the same for each team?
(A) One way of ensuring that you’d get that “pot luck” is by ensuring that your number is always chosen by the same combination of player-turns, and player-card-turns as in the example we gave above. You might be able to do that by having each player go through a game with a “pro-gamery program” that would, to an
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